Exit polls
From CAVDEF
Revision as of 02:12, 18 November 2018 by Marionumber1 (talk | contribs) (Note what Jonathan Simon says about 2012)
History
Methodology
Survey process
Weighting
Early/absentee voters
Adjustment
Red shift
Analyses
2000 general election
Main article: 2000 general election#Exit polls
2004 general election
Main article: 2004 general election#Exit polls
2006 general election
Main article: 2006 general election#Exit polls
2012 general election
Main article: 2012 general election#Exit polls
2016 Democratic primaries
Main article: 2016 Democratic primaries#Exit polls
2016 general election
Main article: 2016 general election#Exit polls
See also
References
External links
- Pre-adjustment of exit polls with election results
- UPI, "The Web: Exit polling not foolproof", 2004/11/02: "There will be 1,480 exit poll precincts throughout the United States, plus 2,995 "quick-count" precincts, where actual votes will be tabulated. The precincts have been picked based on the last election result -- and their total vote will be used to determine the probability of the winner."
- 2016/03/16 discussion started by Ted Soares and Cliff Arnebeck on the possibility that unmanipulated exit polls would show Bernie Sanders winning Ohio
- 2016/04/26 discussion involving Jonathan Simon and Michael Keefer on exit poll methodology - discusses the existence of "quick counts" / quick-count precincts and deception by exit pollsters about their adjustments
- Jonathan Simon post on 2012/11/17 saying that there was no pattern of substantial red shifts in 2012
- David Moore post on 2017/01/17 that gives a brief history of exit polling
